wilson96   Economy, Politics, and More…

Who are you voting for? www.micropoll.com Experiment #104 – McCain & Obama The MOST IMPORTANT presidential election of our time is November 4th – but Jory is too impatient to wait that long, so he’s going to have his microwave predict the election for him. So, you’re probably wondering, Is It A Good Idea To Microwave This? Tune in to find out. Twice a week, microwave specialist Jory Caron microwaves different objects… so you don’t have to! The “Jory Caron Microwave Laboratory II” is a state-of-the-art facility equipped with tinfoil shielding, a ventilation system, emergency surge protectors, safety clothing, and a General Electric microwave named Vanessa. ** New Episodes Every Monday & Friday! ** +++++++++++++++++++++++ Support The Show! FAQ Video: tinyurl.com Merchandise: tinyurl.com Facebook: ideoProductions.com Live Show: ideoProductions.com Donate $$: tinyurl.com Jon’s Twitter: twitter.com Jory’s YouTube: tinyurl.com ++++++++++++++++++++++++ Starring: Jory Caron, Jonathan Paula, & Riley McIlwain Filmed & Edited by: Jonathan Paula An ideo Production – © 2008. ~ #49 – Most Viewed (Today) – Entertainment #68 – Top Favorited (Today) #16 – Top Favorited (Today) – Entertainment #39 – Top Rated (Today) #8 – Top Rated (Today) – Entertainment #68 – Top Rated (This Week) – Entertainment #73 – Most Discussed (This Month) – Entertainment

The probability of Obama winning the Presidential elections in November appears to be pretty robust. Here is why —

(1) Based on public polls, it is becoming evident that Obama is most likely to hold all the states (Michigan appears close but it is trending Obama’s way) that Kerry won in 2004. That would give Obama 252 electoral votes. Add to this Iowa which is almost certain to go to Obama — 7 electoral votes. That gives Obama 259 electoral votes.

On the other hand, McCain — at this stage — is not likely to win all the stages that Bush won in 2004 (284 electoral votes.) McCain is almost sure to lose Iowa (7 electoral votes.) Add to this mix, Ohio (20 electoral votes), Virginia (13 electoral votes), Colorado (9 electoral votes), and New Mexico and Nevada (each with 5 electoral votes) — there is substantial doubt if McCain can hold these states. That puts McCain at about 225 electoral votes.

(2) The more compelling arithmetic is this. Repeatedly, in large numbers of public polls about 37-38 percent of the likely voters identify themselves as Democrats and about 30 percent as republicans. That leaves about 30 percent as independents. (The Newsweek preference measure which shows that about 55 percent of the voters identify themselves as Democrats and 36 percent as Republicans is an outlier.)

Assuming both Obama and McCain get 80 percent of their party votes, the differential gain for Obama would be about 6.5 percent. In the cross-over vote of 20 percent, Obama would lose about 1.5 percent leaving a net lead of about 5 percent for Obama. Assuming that Obama and McCain split the independents, Obama’s overall lead would be about 5 percent.

The only caveat is the potential Bradley-Wilder effect which accounts for about 5-7 percent.

(3) What adds to the odds of Obama’s victory are three other elements: the enormous enthusiasm among democrats and much muted demeanor of the republicans (enthusiasm translates into higher voting percentage and greater voter mobilization, in some cases the enthusiasm gap between the democrats and republicans is as high as 30 points), the extra-ordinarily low approval ratings (in low 30s) of President Bush and the perception that the country is heading in the wrong direction (over 64-70 percent of Americans say this.)

WORLD OF WARCRAFT : Comedian Rich Kuras infiltrates the World of Warcraft to poll players on the 2008 Presidential Election. We broke down the results per race and Class. What we found may…and please excuse the pun…WOW you.

In a previous post, I discussed Obama’s positions on key economic issues. In this post, I will compare and contrast the two candidates on those same economic issues. After reviewing these issues, I am confident that you will conclude that Barack Obama is a friend of working people while John McCain is a friend of big business and the wealthy elite.

On labor related issues, Obama supported the Employee Free Choice Act, federal legislation that grants workers the right to join unions free from employer harassment or intimidation. Obama voted in favor of the motion to close debate on the Employee Free Choice Act. McCain not only failed to sponsor this legislation, he voted against the motion to close debate, effectively killing the Employee Free Choice Act. (H.R. 800, Vote #227, 6/26/07)

On another labor issue, protecting striking workers, Obama has opposed replacing striking workers with permanent replacements. McCain voted against ending debate on a bill that would prohibit employers from hiring permanent replacements for striking workers (S55, Vote #189, 7/13/94).

Finally, in regard to labor issues, Obama has supported raising the minimum wage and indexing it to inflation.  Obama voted in favor of raising the federal minimum wage to $7.25 an hour while McCain voted against increasing the minimum wage (SA.44 to S.256, Vote #26, 3/7/05).

On the subject of tax relief for working families, Obama supports a tax credit of $500 per individual or $1,000 per working family. In addition, Obama supports requiring the wealthiest Americans to pay a higher tax rate to finance these tax credits and other federal programs. McCain supports  a summer gas tax holiday in which the federal gas tax and the diesel tax would be suspended. He also supports keeping the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, where the top tax rate was cut from 39.6% to 35.0%, giving the very wealthy a tax windfall.

In regard to the so called summer “tax holiday,” this proposal has been denounced by Obama as a “gimmick.” The problem with this proposal is that it has no long term effect. The tax relief is limited and temporary. What happens when summer ends? In addition, a cut in the gas tax, even if temporary, would mean that state governments would lose millions of dollars in federal funding for highway improvements necessary for safety and the reduction of traffic congestion.

Another issue of major importance to this year’s presidential campaign is trade. Obama wants to amend the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) so that it benefits American workers by including good labor and environmental standards. McCain is a strong supporter of NAFTA, which the AFL-CIO has stated has cost 1 million American jobs from 1993-2004 (Working Families Vote 2008). McCain has made it clear that he does not support amending NAFTA to create stronger labor and environmental standards.

In regard to the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), a free trade agreement that is opposed by the labor movement, Obama voted against it while McCain voted for CAFTA (S.1307, Vote 170, 6/30/05).

Finally, in regard to protecting homeownership and cracking down on mortgage fraud, Obama supports the creation of a fund to help homeowners refinance their mortgages. The fund would be paid, in part, from increased penalties levied against lenders who act irresponsibly or commit fraud. Obama has also introduced legislation (Stop Fraud Act) that defines mortgage fraud, increases funding for state and local law enforcement, and increases penalties for mortgage fraud.

As for his plan to deal with this problem, McCain said the following: …”there is no substitute for faster economic growth.  No government program is a substitute for the jobs provided by a growing economy.” (Forbes, March 20, 2008) In other words, McCain’s plan is to do nothing for those faced with the loss of their homes or for those who watch while the value of their homes decline. This should hardly come as a surprise to those who may recall that McCain was previously quoted as saying that he did not understand economics.

 

 

It looked more like a presidential debate from the 2008 Campaign than a bipartisan health care summit, as former rivals Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and President Obama, who bluntly told McCain “the campiagn’s over”.

Obama and McCain get it on.. www.minimovie.com Written & Directed by David Morgasen

1. Mortgage CrisisObamaThe ongoing mortgage crisis is a problem that is affecting more and more American families every day. To help protect home ownership and fight mortgage fraud, Obama has presented a multi-tiered plan designed to help families facing foreclosure and also monitor the mortgage industry better to avoid future problems.Obama supports the Stop Fraud Act that provides a definition of mortgage fraud and rules and regulations to help stop the problem. The act also requires the Government Accountability Office to evaluate lending practices and report their findings to congress.The final component of Obama’s mortgage relief plan is to create a universal mortgage credit. Currently, the United States tax code only encourages families to purchase a home with a tax deduction. However, it is currently only available to taxpayers that itemize their returns. This leaves out about 2/3 of Americans who elect to take the standard deduction. Obama would like to create a universal mortgage credit that he claims will benefit an additional 10 million homeowners.McCainSenator McCain also has is own take on the mortgage crisis. His plan is called the new “Home Plan,” which aims to provide help to those hurt by the housing crisis. McCain claims that his plan will allow every deserving homeowner the opportunity to trade in a burdensome mortgage for a more manageable one that will reflect his or her home’s current value.However, exactly “who” is deserving? According to McCain’s website, eligible individuals include those Americans that hold a non-conventional mortgage taken after 2005. The house will need to serve as the home owner’s primary place of residence and he or she will need to be able prove they cannot meet current payments, but would be able to comply with a new 30 year fixed rate mortgage.The DifferenceAlthough Obama’s plan seems more substantive than McCain’s, they both attempt to help solve the countries mortgage problem. However, as with many other issues Obama’s seems to target lower income families namely those that do not itemize which typically correlates to families that make under $50,000. I think it is also interesting to note that they both propose the creation of a government agency to monitor the mortgage industry, but they propose them for different branches of the government.2. Lower Income AmericansObamaSen. Obama’s tax plan seems in line with his redistribution of wealth ideals. His economic plans surround the idea of giving every lower-income American an opportunity to better themselves. The centerpiece is his “Make Work Pay” tax credit that would encourage Americans to take control of their lives, while providing tax relief to both low and middle income taxes. The credit would offset federal taxes on the first $8,100 of a taxpayers earnings and would essentially generate a credit of up to $500 for single persons or $1,000 per family. According to Obama, this credit would eliminate income taxes for at least 10 million low-income Americans.Another of Obama’s more popular tax views is to help make higher education more affordable. He would do this through creating a credit to reimburse taxpayers for the costs of obtaining a college education. According to his plan, the credit would reimburse taxpayers on the first $4,000 they spend on a college education. Obama’s campaign claims that it will cover two-thirds of the cost of attending a public college or university.McCainAs with most Republicans, McCain’s tax plan is more geared to middle and upper income Americans. However, one major component of his campaign has been “Immediate Help for American Families.” In this plan, he claims to target policies that will provide relief to American taxpayers facing rising gas and food prices and record foreclosures. However, it is unclear how McCain’s actual proposals will do that. Specifically, McCain target opaque issues like corn and sugar subsidies, trade barriers, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). While we all know that nothing happens over night, it is even more unclear how these changes in these policies will immediately help the American taxpayer as McCain claims.One of the tax cuts McCain supports is raising the personal exemption for dependents from $3,500 to $7,000. This would help any working taxpayer with dependents they have to provide for, regardless of income level.The DifferenceObama’s tax plan is much more favorable to lower income Americans than McCain’s. He supports programs like the “Make Work Pay” credit that will not only help lower income Americans, but also encourage them to work. It is also interesting to note that both candidates support tax credits designed to help families or anyone taking care of dependents.3. Higher Income AmericansObamaSenator Obama is a big believer in our progressive tax system – and he is not afraid to hide that. So one of the first things Obama is set to do is letting President Bush’s 2001 and 2003 tax cuts to selectively expire. By “selectively expire”, Obama endorses extending those tax cuts on the rates for all but the top two income tax brackets. In addition, Obama also advocates increasing the income cap on payroll taxes. This would essentially be a huge tax increase for taxpayers earning between $97,000 and $250,000, which goes against Obama’s prior commitment to not raise taxes on individuals making less than $250,000.Although Obama voted “nay” on repealing the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), he does support a revamp of the tax. The specific details of his plan are a bit hazy, but Obama has claimed he would like to index the tax according to inflation so that it does not affect middle-income Americans.McCainMcCain is a strong supporter of lowering taxes to encourage economic growth, which is the dominant economic stance of the Republican Party. Not only does he support renewing the Bush tax cuts, but he also favors numerous tax cuts. McCain hopes to reduce taxes on Capital Gains, Interest, Dividend, Investment income, and even corporate tax rates.McCain is a strong supporter of repealing the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), which would be a tax cut for the upper middle income taxpayers. However, if McCain wants this tax fully repealed, then he is going to have to strike a deal with Congress, and it seems highly unlikely that he would get enough support to make this drastic and costly change.Although McCain had originally voted against the Bush tax cuts, he now claims to support an extension of the plan. “I voted to extend them because it would have the effect of having a tax increase,” claimed McCain when asked about his flip-flop. “The tax cuts have increased revenues enormously. They’ve been very beneficial. The problem is that spending has lurched completely out of control. My proposal was to restrain spending. I do not support tax increases. And the effect of not making them permanent would have the effect of a tax increase.”The DifferenceIt is no surprise that McCain’s tax views favor the upper income Americans, as he supports the full extension of President Bush’s tax cut. On the other hand, he does support the repeal of the AMT, which is being levied on more of middle income Americans each year. Although Obama does support other tax breaks for the middle class, he does not want to repeal the AMT.4. Capital GainsObamaOne of the more controversial aspects of Obama’s tax proposal is his hope to nearly double the taxes levied on Capital Gains. The current tax rate on Capital Gains is 15%, and Obama hopes to raise it to 28%. “At a time when Americans are working harder than ever, we are taxing income from work at nearly twice the level that we’re taxing gains for investors,” Obama claims. “We’ve lost the balance between work and wealth.”When questioned about his plan’s to nearly double the rate, Obama claims that he wants to raise the tax for fairness, not for revenue. One of his arguments is that the top 50 hedge fund managers made $29 billion last year, but paid lower tax rates then their secretaries did. Obama wants to restore the rate back to what it was in the Clinton era. Although the rate is much lower today than it was a decade ago, it is being levied on a lot more people. Investing is not only for the rich any more – millions of middle income America invests in stocks, retirement accounts, and mutual funds.Additionally, Obama also fails to mention that the 28% Capital Gains rate was dropped to 20% during President Clinton’s time in office and studies show that the federal government’s revenue from Capital Gains actually increased. Then, when President Bush dropped the rate down to 15% the revenue increased yet again.McCainMcCain plans to keep the current Capital Gains tax rates. He claims that since these taxes are voluntary, they should not be taxes as ordinary income. In order to make a profit, someone must sell a stock. Further taxes could distort decision-making, increase the use of tax shelters, and even lower the federal government’s revenue. Additionally, McCain claims that this tax policy actually helps lower income Americans, as half of all capital gains end up benefiting persons earning less than $50,000 a year.The DifferenceThe differences between McCain’s and Obama’s views on Capital Gains are quite simple. Obama favors doubling the tax rate and McCain wants to keep it at current levels. Although it may seem unfair for Capital Gains to be taxed at lower rates than income, there is some evidence that supports the belief that it encourages economic growth. The federal government’s revenue from Capital Gains has increased since the rate was lowered. You cannot argue against facts. Finally, raising a tax for fairness and not for revenue is not a sound economic policy.